Kansas City Chiefs: Record 14-2, 1 seed in the AFC
How They Got Here:
On the arm of Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes is one of the best players in the NFL and he showed it again this year. It looks like he is going to finish in the top-3 of the MVP voting and he led the Chiefs to a 14-1 record as their starter (He was rested in week 17). He threw for 4,740, (second in the NFL) which was good for an average of 316 passing yards per game which was the most in the NFL. Mahomes had 38 touchdown passes and just six interceptions with a Passer Rating of 108.2. He finished in the top 5 in the NFL in all of these categories showing just how good he has been this year. His top 2 targets, Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill have also been fantastic this year. Kelce had over 100 receptions and gained 1,416 yards which broke the single-season yardage record for Tight-Ends. Tyreek Hill had 1,276 yards with 15 touchdowns (good for second in the NFL). Their offense was unstoppable this year as they gained over 400 yards per game and averaged almost 30 points per game.
Reasons for Concern:
Even though the Chiefs had won 7 straight Patrick Mahomes starts, since they obliterated the Jets they have contested in all one-possession games. The Chiefs have not been able to pull away from teams and are struggling to put that final nail in the coffin every week. Mahomes has also struggled a lot with pressure this year. Over his last three games against the Saints, Falcons, and Dolphins he was sacked 7 times and was pressured numerous other times. In those three games, he completed just 59 percent of his passes with 4 interceptions and a Passer Rating in the ’80s. Over that stretch, the Chiefs have won by an average of only 4 points. They have not looked as dominant over the second half of the season and they will need to peak at the right time if they want to win a second straight Super Bowl.
Reason for Hope:
They are the Chiefs, it’s that simple. They lost one game with Mahomes as the quarterback this year. They have the best record in the NFL and are coming off a Super Bowl victory last year in which they came back from a double-digit hole in every game. They have the best player in the league in Patrick Mahomes alongside an all-star supporting cast. They are never out of a game and are the favorites to win a Super Bowl. Yes, they have played in a lot of close games over the last seven weeks, but they still have won them all. Not to mention they have a first-round bye and the road to the Super Bowl goes through Arrowhead.
Important Stat in Making a Super Bowl Run:
Turnovers. If the Chiefs take care of the football and win the turnover margin, then they are going to be extremely tough to beat in January, and hopefully for them, February. As long as Mahomes takes care of the football and the defense can force just one turnover they are going to be dangerous. Even when Mahomes threw 3 interceptions against the Dolphins, the Chiefs still won the game. It shows that the Chiefs can still win games when they have a turnover against pretty good teams. If they win the turnover battle they can win the Super Bowl.
Buffalo Bills: Record 13-3, 2 seed in the NFL
How They Got Here:
Since the acquisition of Stefon Diggs, the Bills have had a fantastic offense that has ranked among the best in the league in several categories. They are second in yards per game with 396.4, second in points per game with 31.3, and third in passing yards per game with 288.8. They have looked dominant over the last few weeks as they have outscored their last 3 opponents by 88 points. Josh Allen has been an MVP candidate this year as he has made a drastic jump since last year. He has thrown for 4,544 yards and 37 touchdown passes with a Passer Rating of 107.2 (all in the top 5 in the NFL). A big reason for his huge improvement is Stefon Diggs. The Bills traded for Diggs this offseason and so far he was worth the cost. He has 127 receptions, 1,535 receiving yards, and 8 touchdowns. Diggs and Allen both made their first Pro-Bowl this year and Diggs is in the conversation for an All-Pro nod.
Reasons for Concern:
Over the last 10 years, the Bills have been known for having a good defense. This year, however, the Bills defense has been closer to the middle of the pack. They have been 13th in total yards allowed and 15th in total points allowed. In their 3 losses this year they have allowed over 33 points per game and they have struggled against top offenses this year. The run game is also a weak point for the Bills as they are 20th in rushing yards per game and have averaged 107.7 yards per game. There needs to be a great deal of improvement in those two categories if they want to be playing football deep into January.
Reasons for Hope:
Since the Bills’ loss to the Chiefs in week 6, they have gone 9-1 with their only loss coming to the Cardinals on the “Hail Murray.” Over that time they have outscored opponents by nearly 14 points per game and have arguably been the most dominant team during that run. Now in the playoffs, the Bills Mafia is allowed to return to the stadium. The energy that the Bills will get from the fans will be huge in there, hopefully, at least two home playoffs games. This should propel them to secure their spot in the AFC Championship game.
Important Stat for Making a Super Bowl Run:
Sacks. We know that this offense can hang with anybody, but their defense is going to need to make more of an impact in the playoffs. They will need to force pressures in order to slow down opposing offenses and cover up some of the weaknesses on their defense. In the regular season, the Bills got 38 sacks, good for tied 15th. However, those 38 sacks came on a 33.2% blitz rate which was 9th highest in the NFL. They were also able to only give up 28 sacks to Josh Allen. If they are able to convert on more pressure and keep Allen clean, this team is going to be dangerous and possibly make a run at the franchise’s first Super Bowl title.
Pittsburgh Steelers: 12-4, 3 seed in the AFC
How They Got Here:
The Steelers defense has carried the team for the second straight year posting great numbers. Their defense has only given up 19.5 points per game and 305.8 yards per game, both good for third-best in the NFL. It is performing around the same rate it did last year. Getting Big Ben back has also helped to steady an offense that took a massive hit last year with Mason Rudolph and Duck Hodges splitting time at Quarterback. Ben, while it has not been his best season, is still averaging 253.5 passing yards per game with 33 touchdown passes and just 10 interceptions. They also have one of the best, young receiving core in the league with Dionte Johnson, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Chase Claypool. All three of them have over 800 receiving yards on the season and have combined for 25 touchdown receptions.
Reasons for Concern:
Their offensive line, once a staple for the team, is ranked in the bottom five in both pass-block win-rate and rush-block win-rate. This, in return, has affected the run game to the point of it being almost non-existent. The Steelers are last in the NFL averaging under 85 rushing yards per game. Thanks to this Roethlisberger has had to throw a ton of passes on his new surgically repaired elbow which, along with the team, has shown some signs of wear in recent weeks. This is because the Steelers had their bye week back in week 4. All of these issues have all added up to the Steelers having a disastrous 1-4 record of the last 5 weeks. The Jets, of all teams, have had a better record than the Steelers over this span.
Reasons for Hope:
This is a team that just started the season 11-0. They have one of the best defenses in the NFL and have Big Ben, who is a two-time Super Bowl champ. Their defense has gotten a sack in 72 straight games which just broke the NFL record. Led by T.J Watt, who had 15 sacks of his own, the Steelers have gotten 56 sacks (which was good for 1st in the NFL this year.) They also rested Big Ben last week against the Browns, which gave him a much-needed break. The Steelers are still one of the best and most dangerous teams in the NFL, because of their silent strengths that have been represented throughout this season.
Important Stat for Making a Super Bowl Run:
Rushing Yards. The Steelers need to win the game by controlling the time of possession and by taking some of the pressure off of Roethlisberger’s arm. To do that they need to get back to Steeler football, which is playing good defense and running the football. If they can get back to pounding the football up the middle then their offense will become more dangerous and less predictable. Their rushing attack needs to improve drastically if they want to make any sort of a run at the Super Bowl during what is possibly Roethlisberger’s last chance at a third ring.
Tennessee Titans, 11-5, 4th Seed in AFC
How They Got Here:
The Titans offense has gotten the Titans into the playoffs this year rather than the defense. They have averaged 396.4 yards per game this year and 30.7 points per game, good for 3rd and 4th in the league, respectively. Derrick Henry is a big part of the reason why as he has had arguably the best season for a running back since Adrian Peterson in 2012. He has rushed for 2,207 yards and 17 touchdowns both first in the NFL and averaged 5.4 yards per carry. This has helped the play-action game thrive, which has led to the resurgence of Ryan Tannehill. This year Tannehill has thrown for 33 touchdowns and just 7 interceptions to go with 7 rushing touchdowns as well.
Reasons for Concern:
The defense has been a significant problem for the Titans this year. They have allowed the fourth-most yards per game with 398.3 and have allowed 27.4 points per game. The losses of key defenders Jurell Casey, Wesley Woodyard, and Logan Ryan have hurt the defense drastically. They are allowing nearly 7 more points per game than they did last year. Their defense was a crucial part of their postseason run last year and they intercepted Tom Brady to seal the win and slowed down Lamar Jackson in their two wins.. They are going to need to cover up those mistakes with their offense if there is any remote chance of making a run this year.
Reasons for Hope:
Last Year’s Postseason. Last Year the Titans went into the wild card round as 5.5 point underdogs staring down the Patriots dynasty. Not many people expected them to win but they pulled off an upset that shocked the world. They then beat the 14-2 Ravens and held a double-digit lead on the Chiefs. Last year’s playoffs showed that the Titans are built for January football. The cold conditions make it tough to tackle Derrick Henry and powers their offense. They have experience from what happened last year and look to carry over that success to this year.
Important Stat for Making a Super Bowl Run:
Derrick Henry’s 20+ yard runs. This year Derrick Henry had 16 runs of 20 yards or more. That means he averaged 1 per game during the regular season. To put that into perspective this year the second-leading rusher, Dalvin Cook, had 6. That’s right Derrick Henry has more than double the amount of 20+ yard rushed than Dalvin Cook. That explosiveness plus how difficult it is to tackle him shows why Henry is in a league of his own. If he even gets just one of those it sets the Titans up for an easy scoring drive and will boost confidence into their entire team for the rest of the game.
Baltimore Ravens: 11-5, 5th seed in the AFC
How They Got Here:
After a slow start to the season, the Ravens have won five straight and are one of the hottest teams in football heading into the playoffs. Over those last 5, the Ravens have won by an average of 19.4 points per game. To do this the Ravens have used the same formula for success that they did last year; running the football. The Ravens have averaged 191.9 rushing yards per game and have gained nearly 400 more rushing yards than the next closest team. The combination of Mark, Ingram, JK Dobbins, and Gus Edwards is deadly and gives the Ravens three capable starting running backs to go with Lamar Jackson. Their defense has also been very efficient this year giving up a mere 18.9 points per game and 329.8 yards per game.
Reasons for Concern:
Obviously, the Ravens’ postseason struggles are well documented over the last two years with Lamar Jackson. They have gone 0-2 with Jackson in the post-season averaging just 14.5 points per game. He had three turnovers last season against the Titans in the divisional round and an interception against the Chargers two years ago in the wild card round. However, the Ravens’ problems do not just have to do with history. Their offensive line has taken a hit since Marshall Yanda retired last offseason, as this year they fall at the 16th rank for the season by PFF. The losses of Ronnie Staley and Nick Boyle for the season have also impacted the line which had been a top-5 offensive line before this season. It will be interesting to see how the Ravens deal with the better pass-rushers in the playoffs.
Reasons for Hope:
This Ravens team is the hottest it has been this year at just the right time. Just last week against the Cincinnati Bengals the Ravens rushed for 404 yards on the ground. They are extremely tough to stop on the ground and Lamar Jackson is becoming more efficient as a passer which just adds another dimension to their game. They are a team that no one wants to face right now and their style of play is perfect for smash-mouth January football. All of these factors could lead to a team that puts it all together and makes a run late into the playoffs.
Important Stat in Making a Super Bowl Run:
Rushing Yards. Everyone knows that the Ravens are going to run the football and teams are probably going to sell out to stop the run. They are going to try to force Jackson to drop back and throw the football. However, that is not the Ravens’ style of play. If Lamar drops back and throws the ball for 361 yards like he did last year in the playoffs, things probably will not end well for the Ravens. If they pound the ball for over 200 yards on the ground, with teams knowing they are going to run, then they should be able to make a very deep playoff run.
Cleveland Browns: 11-5, 6th in AFC
How They Got Here:
The Browns made it to the playoffs for the first time in 18 years by using a new formula for success. The Browns are running the football very effectively this year averaging 148.4 yards on the ground. Their 1-2 punch of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt has been front and center this season as they both rank in the top 10 in the AFC in rushing yards. This has opened up the play-action game as well, which has allowed Baker Mayfield to thrive in Kenvin Stefanski’s new system. Baker has a touchdown to interception ratio of 26:8 compared to last year’s where he went 22:21. He has improved in every facet of his game, as have the Browns. Their rushing defense ranks in the top 10 in the NFL in yards per game allowed with teams averaging just 110.8 yards per game on the ground.
Reasons for Concern:
The Browns passing defense has been their Achilles’ Heel at times this year. They rank 11th worst in the NFL allowing almost 250 passing yards per game. Their cornerbacks struggle mightily in man-to-man coverage and that is something that could cost them late in games when they need a stop. Their coach Kevin Stefanski is also out with COVID and that is a huge blow to the entire team. Stefanski is a frontrunner for Coach of the Year and he has been an excellent play-caller for the Browns. It will be interesting to see how the Browns’ acting head coach Mike Priefer makes in-game decisions and adjustments for them.
Reasons for Hope:
The Browns have looked fantastic in some games this year. When Nick Chubb gets going the whole team looks like they are on a different level. The entire offense opens up and when that happens Baker can be dangerous. Against the Titans earlier this season Mayfield threw 4 first-half touchdowns. The Browns offense is loaded and when they are firing on all cylinders, specifically with a jump start from their elite RB’s, they can go toe to toe with anyone in the league.
Important Stat in Making a Super Bowl Run:
Time of Possession. If the Browns can hold on to the football and run a lot of clock with Chubb and Hunt then they will have a shot in every game. Their defense is shaky at best so in order to keep them off the field and limit the other teams’ offensive possessions, the Browns will need to waste the clock. If they can do this then the Browns will have a shot at winning their first playoff game since 1994.
Indianapolis Colts: 11-5, 7th in AFC
How They Got Here:
After signing Philip Rivers in the offseason to a short-term contract in the offseason, the Colts have made their case as a team to make a deep playoff run. Indianapolis has gotten to the playoffs by having a balanced attack on offense and having one of the league best defenses. They rank in the top 10 of the NFL in total offensive yards, total offensive points, total defensive yards allowed, and total defensive points allowed. On offense, they rank 11th in both passing and rushing yards with 253.3 passing yards per game and 124.8 rushing yards per game. Indy is an extremely well-rounded team and it’s been difficult for other teams to attack a specific weakness when they play. They do so many things well that teams have to focus on doing everything to stop them.
Reasons for Concern:
The Colts’ pass coverage is a major weak point on a team that does not really have one. They rank 13th worst in the NFL in pass yards allowed per game giving up 241.6 per game. While those numbers might not seem that bad at first glance, the Colts’ secondary is worse than that indicates. Their pass rush makes up for the secondary a lot of games. When teams have a good offensive line and have some time to throw, the Colts’ secondary is susceptible to allowing big plays. Against the Packers, in the first half, the Colts gave up 28 points where Aaron Rodgers torched the secondary. The same thing happened against the Steelers in the second half where Big Ben had some time and he connected on some long touchdown passes. Their secondary is the weakest link that the Colts have heading into the playoffs.
Important Stat in Making a Super Bowl Run:
Pressure. The Colts will need to get after the quarterback if they want to slow down a lot of the top offenses in the AFC. They have gotten 40 sacks this year and it has been a key part of their success. They also need to stop opposing teams from pressuring them. They have one of the best offensive lines in the league and it has helped Phillip Rivers take care of the football in the passing game. Rivers also owns one of the most comedic stats in the league this year as well which has proven his O-Line’s excellence. On the entire year, Rivers has 1 scramble for 3 total yards. If teams pressure him, he is not going to get out of the pocket so it’s up to the line to do its job.
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